"Brazil Autos Report Q4 2015" now available at Fast Market Research

Due to Brazil's worsening macroeconomic outlook, BMI forecasts a 24.1% drop in vehicle sales in 2015 followed by weak 1.4% growth in 2016, as declines in the passenger car segment are outpaced by stronger declines in the commercial vehicle (CV) segment.

We forecast a 22.8% decline in passenger car sales in 2015 with sales reaching below 2.16mn units for the year. Rising borrowing costs and increased vehicle prices will provide added drag to the passenger car market, which is already becoming hamstrung by falling consumer confidence and spending as Brazil's economy moves into a period of restructuring and widespread job shedding.

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In 2015, BMI expects to see a 29.3% decrease in CV sales. More specifically, we forecast light commercial vehicle (LCV) sales to drop 27.0% to 393,527 units as borrowing costs and falling investment spending will limit business purchases. Heavy trucks will also be hit by rising interest rates as well as an ongoing crisis in the construction as well as oil and gas sectors, which will drag sales down by 39.0% to 83,614 units. Finally, we expect bus and coach sales to fall by 25% after government spending cuts extinguished the chance of an increase in public transport investments.

Owing to this bearish sales outlook and the orientation of Brazil's manufacturing industry towards the domestic market, rather than export markets, BMI is also becoming more bearish on the country's production outlook. Indeed, we expect a continuation of the large falls in output seen in 2014, with total vehicle production forecast to decrease 13.6% in 2015. Breaking down this forecast, we expect passenger car production to fall 11.7%, LCV output to drop 17%, heavy trucks to decrease by 29% and bus manufacturing to shrink by 10%. Production will also be hampered by growing labour unrest and an increasing number of strikes, as well as other costly industrial actions.

The Brazil Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

BMI Research's Brazil Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Brazil.

Key Benefits

* Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Brazil to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Brazilian automotives market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in the Brazilian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Brazil.
* Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

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