"Bulgaria Autos Report Q4 2015" Published

We forecast that the slowdown in vehicle sales growth seen in 2014 will intensify in 2015, and forecast growth of just 1.1% to 20,583 units. Owing to our Country Risk team's bearish macroeconomic outlook for Bulgaria, we also hold bearish views on light commercial vehicle and heavy truck sales forecasts for 2015.

Part of the longer term problem for the new vehicle market in Bulgaria is the practice of hanging on to older vehicles, a practice which we believe will intensify due to lower oil prices. According to a report published in June 2014, data from the Bulgarian traffic police show that 39% of all registered vehicles are more than 20 years old. We believe this trend will continue as fuel costs fall alongside falling oil prices. Falling fuel prices will make replacing older, less fuel-efficient vehicles with more fuel efficient new vehicles a much less attractive option than simply keeping older vehicles. Owing to our Country Risk team's worsening macroeconomic outlook for Bulgaria, we are revising down our light commercial vehicle (LCV) forecast for 2015. We now forecast sales to drop 0.5% over 2015, down from a forecasted 5% gain, previously. As tightening credit conditions and weak consumer confidence weigh on spending, our country risk forecast real GDP growth to grow by a disappointing 0.8%. All this considered, we highlight that the heavy truck segment looks set to perform marginally better than LCVs. Owing to the strong correlation between heavy truck demand and construction activity, we believe heavy truck sales will expand 3.0% in 2015 alongside 1.7% real growth in the construction sector.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/1038761_bulgaria_autos_report_q4_2015.aspx?afid=301

The Bulgaria Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

BMI Research's Bulgaria Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Bulgaria.

Key Benefits

* Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Bulgaria to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Bulgarian automotives market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in the Bulgarian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Bulgaria.
* Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Industry SWOT Analysis

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