"Kenya Country Risk Report Q4 2015" Published

The April 2 attack by al-Shabaab on Garissa University in north eastern Kenya highlights the country's perilous security outlook, which is unlikely to improve over the coming months.

The politicization of sharp ethnic divisions remains the key threat to Kenya's long-term political stability. Terrorism linked to Kenya's military involvement in Somalia is likely to remain a risk, but it does not pose a systemic threat to political stability.

Concerns about public spending are rising in Kenya. While we predict that the country will see its fiscal deficit narrow modestly over the coming years, we believe that the country's public finances are in less rude health than this trend suggests.

Major Forecast Changes

The release of rebased GDP figures has led to substantial revisions to our estimates of Kenya's current account and fiscal deficits when presented as a fraction of GDP. Our general view on economic growth and the development of the Kenyan economy remains largely unchanged.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/1024081_kenya_country_risk_report_q4.aspx?afid=301

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Kenya 2013-2016)

Indicator

2013

2014e

2015f

2016f

National Sources/BMI

Nominal GDP, USDbn 54.9 60.9 66.7 72.9
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 5.7 5.3 6.4 6.3
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 7.2 6.0 6.3 6.5
Exchange rate KES/USD, eop 86.30 90.60 94.80 97.40
Budget balance, % of GDP -5.6 -5.1 -4.8 -4.6
Current account balance, % of GDP -8.7 -8.2 -5.9 -6.5

The Kenya Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Kenya. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Kenya's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, BMI Research.

Key Uses

* Forecast the pace and stability of Kenya's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise Kenya's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
* Evaluate external threats to doing business in Kenya, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Kenya Country Risk Report by BMI Research includes three major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook and Operational Risk.

Economic Outlook:



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