"Egypt Agribusiness Report Q4 2015" Published

Egypt is the world's largest wheat importer and will benefit from the recent sell-off in grain prices. The country recently reforme d its food subsidy programme, introducing a n income-based subsidy in the form of a multi-commodity monthly stipend , which we expect to modify the typical household's food basket . We believe that particularly good growth prospects exist in the country's livestock and dairy industries, as cattle herds continue to recover from a foot and mouth outbreak in 2012. These sectors will also benefit from lower global grain prices relative to the last several years and an improving domestic economic situation.

Key Forecasts

Wheat production growth 2013/14 to 2018/19: 3.5 % to 8.5mn tonnes. This will largely be the result of government efforts to increase area planted and yields in the coming years.

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Rice consumption growth to 2019: 10.3% to 4.4mn tonnes. This will come from reform in the government's procurement scheme inducing substitution away from wheat in favour of rice.

Sugar consumption growth to 2019: 10.3% to 3.2mn tonnes. This will be driven by growth in the local confectionery and soft drinks industries on the back of population and income growth.

Poultry production growth to 2018/19: 13.9% to 1.1mn tonnes. Poultry production will grow strongly due to high demand and development in poultry rearing methods.

Real GDP growth: 2.6 % in 2015 (up from 2.2% y-o-y in 2014).

Consumer price inflation: 11.0% average in 2015 (up from 10.1% y-o-y in 2014).

BMI universe agribusiness market value: 1.1% increase to USD28.6bn in 2014/15; forecast to increase on average 2.7% annually between 2014/15 and 2018/19.

The Egypt Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Egypt Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

* Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
* Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
* Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

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