China Autos Report Q4 2015 - New Market Study Published

According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, auto sales in June 2015 declined 2.3% y-o-y to 1,803,100 units, bringing sales for H115 to 11,854,900 units, an increase of 1.5% y-o-y. We have downgraded our 2015 sales growth forecast to 3.9% as a slowing economy coupled with the recent stock market collapse remain key headwinds to demand.

Besides these factors, we see auto demand taking a hit from the increasing number of cities placing restrictions on car sales to tackle their worsening air pollution and traffic problems. For instance, Shenzhen announced curbs on car sales in December 2014 and has capped the number of new cars sold in the city to 100,000 units a year. As more upper tier cities, which have traditionally been strong demand drivers, impose caps, automakers will have to accelerate their expansion in the country's less penetrated Western region to find new areas of growth.

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After contracting by 6.5% in 2014, we forecast commercial vehicle (CV) sales to decline at a more modest rate of 1.0% in 2015. However, the rebalancing of the Chinese economy away from an investment-led growth model to a more consumption driven one will weigh on CV sales in the coming years.

Suppliers In Sweet Spot

The supplier market in China is also expected to see strong growth over the coming years, as various regulatory changes bring about opportunities for different market players within the segment. Amidst the ongoing anti-trust crackdown, the after-sales market will benefit from a more level playing field, as original equipment suppliers will be allowed to sell their products directly to consumers and non-authorised dealers. The more heavy handed approach that Beijing is taking to ensure automakers meet fuel economy targets also suggests opportunities for turbochargers.

The China Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

BMI Research's China Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in China.

Key Benefits

* Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on China to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Chinese automotives market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in the Chinese automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in China.
* Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

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