Now Available: Ireland Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Ireland's economy will remain the fastest growing in the eurozone in 2015.

Systemic risks to Ireland's economy have been reduced by progress cutting the budget deficit, exiting the country's sovereign bailout, and attempts to cool the housing market.

Although private consumption will be the main driver of real GDP growth in 2015 and 2016, we expect growth to be increasingly broad-based based over the coming quarters.

Support for the ruling Fine Gael/Labour coalition will be boosted by Ireland's increasingly strong economic recovery, suggesting a growing chance of the coalition being re-elected in the next election by December 2016.

Key Risks To Outlook

We do not rule out a significant political gaffe, or unexpected economic shock in the eurozone, denting support for the coalition government. This would make the 2016 election even more uncertain.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/1024077_ireland_country_risk_report.aspx?afid=301

Although not our core view, we would downgrade our forecasts for exports and real GDP growth if leading and high frequency indicators point towards a significant slowdown in eurozone demand in 2015.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Ireland 2013-2016)

Indicator

2013

2014

2015f

2016f

e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Sources/BMI

Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 0.2 4.8 4.0 3.5
Nominal GDP, EURbn 174.8 185.4 193.7 203.1
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 0.2 -0.3 1.2 1.3
Exchange rate EUR/USD, eop 0.72 0.83 0.98 0.91
Budget balance, % of GDP -5.7 -3.6 -2.7 -2.3
Current account balance, % of GDP 4.5 5.6 4.9 5.0

The Ireland Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Ireland. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Ireland's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

* Forecast the pace and stability of Ireland's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise Ireland's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
* Evaluate external threats to doing business in Ireland, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Ireland Country Risk Report

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