New Market Report: Kazakhstan & Central Asia Country Risk Report Q4 2015

The Kazakh government will prioritise aid to state companies over households in its policy response to declining public revenues from lower oil prices. Nevertheless, the pace of fiscal consolidation will fall short of eroding living standards to the extent that they destabilise the regime of President Nursultan Nazarbayev.

The collapse of Prime Minister Djoomart Otorbayev's cabinet in April has heightened regulatory and political uncertainty, casting a dark cloud on the country's mining sector and foreign direct investment outlook. A worsening balance of payments outlook will further ramp up downside pressure on the Kyrgyz som, which is already under pressure from weakening remittance inflows, further stoking inflation.

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Severe summer flooding has already darkened the already subdued real GDP growth outlook for Tajikistan in 2015 and 2016. The economy will continue to struggle to cope with collapsing remittances and commodity prices.

Recent economic data releases have lent support to our bearish outlook on the Uzbek economy. Remittance inflows from Russia and Uzbek exports to Russia have precipitously declines in Q115, lending support to our forecast for real GDP growth to slow to 6.1% this year from 7.6% in 2014.

The recent dismissal of several top government officials is a sign of the growing weakness by the authorities in addressing the growing economic challenges facing the country. While the effectiveness of the security apparatus and solid economic growth rates in the next few years will mean that the government will likely achieve social stability, the growing external pressures on the economy will put these goals increasingly out of reach.

MAJOR FORECAST CHANGES

We retain our downbeat macroeconomic outlook on Kyrgyzsan and have even downgraded our 2015 growth forecast to 4.2% from 4.8% previously.

The Kazakhstan & Central Asia Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, BMI Research.

Key Uses

* Forecast the pace and stability of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
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