New Market Report: Saudi Arabia Country Risk Report Q4 2015

The replacement of Saudi Arabia's heir on April 29, along with other major changes in the country's leadership, represent a further consolidation of King Salman's authority. That said, the elevation of the king's son as second in line to the throne is likely to prove a controversial choice, and could spark future instability.

The new king has quickly consolidated his authority over Saudi Arabia's economic policy apparatus, restructuring the country's administration and taking steps to improve the coordination of its vast public investment plans. That said, these changes have so far not greatly altered the economic policy line pursued by Saudi Arabia, and we retain our view that Salman will maintain his predecessor Abdullah's reforms and energy policies.

Saudi Arabia's economic outlook remains favourable in spite of the continuing slump in oil prices, but we expect growth to moderate heading into 2016. The forces bolstering economic activity - a sustained expansion in government spending and increases in oil production - will gradually tail off over the coming quarters.

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The Saudi-led military operation in Yemen has so far achieved none of its desired objectives, and further airstrikes are unlikely to make a tangible difference to the balance of power on the ground. A move towards political dialogue between the warring factions is likely, but any agreement between Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Shi'a Houthi rebels will be difficult to reach and even more difficult to implement.

Continued heavy spending on the part of the government indicates its ongoing concerns about the need to shore up its key bases of support, given the persistent threat of public unrest. While we maintain that large-scale protests are unlikely to occur in Saudi Arabia, large youth unemployment coupled with a lack of political liberties mean that tensions will continue to linger.

The Saudi Arabia Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Saudi Arabia. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Saudi Arabia's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, BMI Research.

Key Uses

* Forecast the pace and stability of Saudi Arabia's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise Saudi Arabia's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
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