"Taiwan Country Risk Report Q4 2015" is now available at Fast Market Research

Taiwan's Q215 real GDP grew by 0.6% y-o-y, a sharp deceleration from 3.5% in Q115. As such, we have downgraded our real GDP growth forecast to 2.6% (from 3.5% previously) to reflect the impact of a challenging external environment, as well as the deleterious toll that policy uncertainty has taken on the domestic economy.

Taiwan's opposition chairwoman Tsai Ying-wen is still the forerunner in Taiwan's presidential election (16 January 2016) despite the nomination of Hung Hsiu-chu as the ruling KMT's candidate. Hung's relative political obscurity and lack of governing experience suggest that the KMT might instead decide to focus on the legislative elections, which will be held concurrently. Furthermore, both Hung and Tsai's vague China policy will result in continued uncertainty in Taiwan's business environment as neither party has made clear when, if ever, the free trade agreement with China will be ratified.

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Lower energy costs should keep headline inflation in Taiwan muted through the end of 2015, prompting us to downgrade our end year inflation forecast to 1.0%, implying an average of 0.8%. We expect the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) (CBC) to keep its discount rate on hold at 1.875% throughout 2015 and have pared back our rate hike expectations for 2016, forecasting a rate hike to 2.00% from 2.50% previously.

The passing of a new housing tax should have a negative impact on Taiwan's property prices over the longer term, as well as remove uncertainty in the market. However, these taxes are unlikely to have significant impact on the budget deficit, which we forecast to come in at 1.7% of GDP in 2015.

The Taiwan Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Taiwan. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Taiwan's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, BMI Research.

Key Uses

* Forecast the pace and stability of Taiwan's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise Taiwan's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
* Evaluate external threats to doing business in Taiwan, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Taiwan Country Risk Report

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