Ukraine Infrastructure Report Q4 2015 - New Market Report

With the prospect of a major recession looming, the local currency depreciating sharply and the potential for a re-escalation of conflict in the east of Ukraine lingering there is little to instil confidence amongst investors in the country's declining infrastructure sector. With major projects put on hold due to a lack of private investment and huge pressure on public spending , we therefore expect to see the fourth consecutive year of contraction in construction industry value in 2015, with transport in particular underperforming. In light of the weak domestic economy and lack of investor interest we do not expect to see any return to growth prior to 2017 with the entire infrastructure sector remaining subdued throughout the forecast period.

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Key Trends And Developments

Ukraine's economic outlook remains extremely weak, with BMI's Ukraine Country Risk analysts forecasting real GDP to contract by 5.3% in 2015 alongside high inflation and extensive currency depreciation.

With official statistics showing an even sharper than expected contraction in construction in 2014 we have further downgraded our 2015 forecasts and now expect residential and non-residential construction value to contract by 14.4% in real terms in 2015 on a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis and infrastructure industry value by 9.1%.

Ukraine continues to rely heavily upon external funding such as the recently announced USD15bn investment by China in affordable housing construction and European Investment Bank loans for reconstruction of damaged energy and transport infrastructure.

The government has released a list of nearly 300 state owned companies due to privatisation (fully or partly) in 2015 including several power plants and ports.

Our forecasts are likely to be subject to further revision as economic, political and security events unfold. If tensions do not ease, the sector could suffer from further economic pressure with severe downside risks remaining a major burden.

The Ukraine Infrastructure Report features BMI Research's market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.

BMI's Ukraine Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Ukrainian infrastructure and construction industry.

Key Benefits

* Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Ukraine

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