Hong Kong Autos Report Q4 2015 - New Market Study Published

Passenger Car Sales

According to the Hong Kong Department of Transport, domestic passenger car sales declined by 9.5% y-o-y in April 2015 to 2,578 units, which is in line with our expectations of a more challenging market for the sector despite a strong start. This brings passenger car sales for the first four months of 2015 to 12,806 units, representing growth of 1.2% y-o-y. As we expect additional headwinds to weigh on passenger car sales in the latter half of the year, we now forecast passenger car sales to grow by 2.1% in 2015, down from 3.8% previously.

A key risk which we foresee over the coming quarters is a cooling property market will weigh on consumer sentiment. Our Country Risk team sees an increasing likelihood of a property price correction as demand from mainland Chinese investors, which have traditionally been an important source of demand for Hong Kong real estate, dries up due to the ongoing anti-corruption drive in China. A decline in property prices would hurt consumer sentiment and could easily have a negative spill over effect on passenger car demand.

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That said, our forecasts still represents a slight improvement from the 1.9% domestic passenger car sales growth registered in 2014, which is also in line with our Country Risk team's outlook for the country. Despite our Country Risk team downgrading the country's long-term (2015-2024) real GDP growth forecast for Hong Kong to an average of 3.2% per annum, from 3.6% previously on the back of external headwinds from China ( see ' China, Property, High Debt Levels To Weigh On Growth' , May 21), economic growth will still be higher compared with 2014, when GDP expanded by 2.3%. Moreover, private consumption growth will improve to 3.8% in 2015 versus 2.7% in 2014, which will see consumer demand for durables such as cars remain resilient.

The Hong Kong Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

BMI Research's Hong Kong Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Hong Kong.

Key Benefits

* Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Hong Kong to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Hong Kong automotives market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in the Hong Kong automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Hong Kong.
* Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

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