Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Iraq Defence & Security Report 2015", is now available at Fast Market Research
[ClickPress, Tue Sep 22 2015] BMI expects the Iraqi defence budget to be worth USD25.7bn in 2015, which is a significant increase on the USD22.2bn expected by the end of 2014. Despite a slight improvement in the domestic situation on the previous quarter, as a result of international support to shore up the government and the security forces, BMI expects Iraq to be plagued with governance and security difficulties for the foreseeable future.
We have given Iraq an overall security risk rating of 27 for Q115. To us, it seems evident that Iraq's greatest security risk is terrorism, both domestic and international, leaving it with a score of mere 16 out of 100 for Q115. That said, we think that the country is also affected by wider interstate tensions occurring across the Middle East and that its weak governance and security architecture leaves the domestic scene vulnerable to the power play politics of external actors, Notably Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the U.S.
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In Q414, the Iraqi government has continued its efforts to purchase additional heavy weaponry to be used against the Islamic State and potentially to suppress any internal dissent against the heavy handed practices of its own security forces. While Iraqi security forces with the support of the US and Iran have made progress in countering the advances of the Islamic State in recent weeks, we expect the receipt of additional weaponry such as Russian made Mi-28 attack helicopters and potentially American made F-16's, although these are currently held up in the US, to support counter-offensives against the Islamic State in the Spring of 2015.
We have given Iraq an overall security risk score of 27 for Q115, which includes a mere 16 from terrorism.
In 2015, we forecast Iraq's defence expenditure to reach USD25.7bn, a 15.8% increase on 2014.
We forecast the percentage of the population available for military service to remain at approximately 48%.
The Iraq Defence & Security Report features BMI Research's independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.
BMI's Iraq Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Iraqi defence and security industry.
* Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Iraq to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Iraqi defence and security market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in the Asia defence and security sector
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