Real GDP growth in Hungary will slow in the coming quarters as government-led investment projects are scaled back. Hungary's domestic demand recovery will trail that of Central European peers due in part to a crippled banking sector. However, we have revised upward our 2015 and 2016 real GDP forecasts, from 2.7% and 2.4% to 2.9% and 2.5% respectively, on account of accelerating external demand, improving terms of trade and a better outlook for private consumption.
Headline Industry Data
Total food consumption value (local currency) growth y-o-y in 2015: +4.6%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2019: +4.7%.
Per capita food consumption value (local currency) growth y-o-y in 2015: +4.9%; CAGR to 2019: +4.9%.
Alcoholic drinks value (local currency) sales growth y-o-y in 2015: -0.3%; CAGR to 2019: +2.7%.
Soft drinks value (local currency) sales growth y-o-y in 2015: +0.1%; CAGR to 2019: +3.4%.
Total mass grocery retail value sales (local currency) growth y-o-y in 2015: +3.3%; CAGR to 2019: +5.2%.
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Key Company Trends
Tesco ' s Hungarian Woes Continue : Despite posting increased year-on-year revenues from its Hungarian operations during financial year 2014/15 (up 1.5%), Tesco Hungary also saw increased net losses, according to reports in August 2015. This will come as a blow to the retailer, which has already implemented a number of measures in Hungary to try and improve its performance. There is extra pressure on the retailer to turn around its fortunes in Hungary, resulting from the implementation of new laws that come into effect in January 2018. The legislation prohibits retailers with revenue above HUF50bn (EUR164mn) and which remain unprofitable for two consecutive years, from operating in the country.
The Hungary Food & Drink Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.
BMI's Hungary Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Hungary.
* Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Hungary to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Hungarian food and drink market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in Hungary
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