Now Available: Belarus Country Risk Report Q4 2015

The ongoing crisis in Ukraine will ensure support for President Alexander Lukashenko remains robust in the run up to the 2015 presidential election. Opinion polls indicate voters prefer the stability engendered by the regime to the uncertainty following the ousting of the president, and we believe the government will continue to divide its focus between closer Russian and EU relations.

The Belarusian economy will remain in recession until 2016 as the fallout from Russia's economic crisis spreads. Stagnant real wage growth driven by high inflation will cap consumer spending, while collapsing demand from Russia and Ukraine will exacerbate Belarus' external imbalances and ensure that net exports remain a drag on growth.

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Consumer price inflation to remain high in Belarus over the next two years as the rouble's continued depreciation stokes imported inflationary pressures, though tight monetary policy and slow real wage growth will prevent a return to the hyperinflation witnessed in 2012.

Major Forecast Changes

We have revised up our current account deficit forecast for 2015 from 8.1% of GDP to 7.4% of GDP to reflect the continued fall in imports as a result of weakened household purchasing power.

Consumer price inflation has been slow to build over the course of 2015, though as the BYR has hit new lows against the USD we expect this will begin to rise in Q415. We have revised down our average inflation forecast for 2015 from 18% to 16%.

We expect some strength in BYR against USD over the remainder of 2015 as oil prices stabilise, but forecast steady depreciation over a longer term time horizon. We have revised our average BYR/USD forecast for 2015 and 2016 to BYR15,300/USD and BYR16,625/USD.

The Belarus Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Belarus. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Belarus's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, BMI Research.

Key Uses

* Forecast the pace and stability of Belarus's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise Belarus's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
* Evaluate external threats to doing business in Belarus, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

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