Uncertainty will characterise Tanzania's political climate over the coming months as the general election on October 25 approaches. We believe key investment decisions - particularly in the energy sector - are likely to be delayed until the dust from the election has settled and policy direction becomes clearer.
Economic growth in Tanzania will feel the effects of policy uncertainty in the energy and mining sectors up to, and likely well beyond, the general election on October 25. While we expect growth to return to trend from mid-2016 onwards, risks to the medium-term growth picture are increasingly to the downside.
Tanzania will undergo a modest improvement in its external position over the next two years as lower oil prices help to reduce the country's hefty imported fuel bill. Despite this short term adjustment, high import demand and modest growth in exports will see the current account balance remain deep in red.
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Major Forecast Changes
Events in recent months have strengthened our conviction that the pace of economic growth in Tanzania will slow in 2015. Having averaged 6.9% annually between 2010 and 2014, we now expect real GDP growth in the country to come in at a more modest 5.7% in 2015 - a downward revision from the 6.4% we forecast last quarter.
Key Risks To Outlook
A major risk to our economic outlook comes from the weather. Poor rains would not only exacerbate tight food supplies (food price inflation was the major driver of rapidly rising headline inflation in 2011) but would also once again hamper hydroelectricity production, raising costs for businesses and, by extension, consumers.
The Tanzania Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in The Tanzania and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..
An influential new analysis of The Tanzania's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).
* Forecast the pace and stability of The Tanzania's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise The Tanzania's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Ratings system.
* Evaluate external threats to doing business in The Tanzania, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.
The Tanzania Country Risk Report
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New Market Research Report: Tanzania Country Risk Report Q4 2015
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