Report Published: "Croatia Shipping Report Q4 2015"

Weak recovery on the cards

Croatia's main maritime hub, the Port of Rijeka, will see low bulk tonnage growth this year, with a slightly stronger expansion of container traffic. Performance at the ports of Ploce and Sibenik will be mixed, with container throughout at the latter falling. The reason for this disparate performance will be the weak state of the domestic economy and the country's poor foreign trade showing. After estimated strong growth in 2014, we expect foreign trade expansion to ease back again in 2015.

We have edged up our growth forecast for the Croatian economy this year, but it remains a stand-still scenario. Consistent with a run of year-on-year contractions since 2009, GDP again fell by 0.4% in 2014. For 2015 we now predict growth of 0.3% (up from 0.1% previously), with the pace of expansion rising marginally to 1.0% in 2016. Positives include the effect of lower oil prices and the gradual eurozone recovery. But the numbers are in keeping with our view that Croatia is caught on a low-growth trajectory unless and until the government finds a way of tackling the serious competitiveness issues facing the economy. Croatia is amongst the least competitive economies in the EU, labour laws are overly restrictive, and the country's bureaucracy is cumbersome and bloated. A key problem is that much of the work force receives relatively high salaries for low-productivity jobs, With elections due in early 2016 the ruling centre-left government will be unwilling to take unpopular measures to improve productivity. This implies wages will remain high by regional standards, Croatian exports will be relatively expensive, and overseas investors will steer clear of investing in any export-orientated industries.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/1052929_croatia_shipping_report_q4.aspx?afid=301

Headline Industry Data

In 2015 port of Rijeka tonnage volume will grow by 1.7% to 9.178mn tonnes, after 3.9% growth in 2014. Over the medium term to 2019 we project average annual growth of 3.0%.

The Croatia Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and BMI Research's independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Croatia.

BMI's Croatia Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Croatia.

Key Benefits

* Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Croatia

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