New Market Report: Lebanon and Syria Country Risk Report Q4 2015

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's is unlikely to regain full control of the country, but has consolidated his control across a belt of territory stretching from the port cities of Tartous and Latakia in north-western Syria, through Homs in the centre of the country to the capital Damascus in the south-west. Jihadist group Islamic State (IS) has gained significant ground since 2014, and currently holds approximately a third of the country's territory.

Our core scenario sees the civil war continuing for many years, ending in a partition of Syria along sectarian lines - either as the outcome of a negotiated settlement between the warring parties, or through an extended stalemate and de facto break-up of the country. An outright victory by either the Assad regime (actively backed by Iran and Lebanese Shi'a militant group Hizbullah), or the disparate coalition of rebels aligned against it, appears less probable at this stage.

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By 2016, we expect the Syrian economy to shrink to the size it was in the early-1990s. While regions held by the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad will remain better-off than those occupied by the rebels, business activity and state investment will stay stagnant, and living standards will continue to decline as the Syrian pound loses value.

IS will remain resilient for at least the next one to two years, with the defeat of the group requiring both sufficient military force on the ground and a political solution which would satisfy Sunni grievances - both of which are even harder to contemplate in Syria than in Iraq, IS' other bastion.

The Lebanon and Syria Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Syria, Lebanon. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Syria, Lebanon's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, BMI Research.

Key Uses

* Forecast the pace and stability of Syria, Lebanon's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise Syria, Lebanon's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
* Evaluate external threats to doing business in Syria, Lebanon, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Lebanon and Syria Country Risk Report by BMI Research includes three major sections:

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