New Report Available: Argentina Country Risk Report Q4 2015

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Mon Sep 28 2015

A substantial uptick in investment is unlikely while the current administration remains in power due to the government's history of interventionism. Nonetheless, declining inflation and import controls will support the country's private consumption and net exports balance, keeping growth in positive territory in 2015.

Pre-election spending and rising interest payments will see Argentina's primary and nominal budget deficits widen in 2015. The Argentine government will tap its foreign reserves and dollar-linked domestic bond markets in order to finance the budget shortfall, exacerbating the country's weak external account position.

The Argentine government will allow the peso to depreciate over the coming months, as a drop in foreign currency reserves keeps downwards pressure on the exchange rate. We expect a more substantial devaluation to occur after the October 2015 presidential election, as political pressure will preclude a major currency adjustment ahead of the poll.

Full Report Details at

Key Forecast Changes

We revised up our real GDP growth forecasts for the latter half of our 10-year forecast period on the back of improved private consumption as a new government's impact on the economy begins to be felt.

We changed our 2015 real GDP growth forecast to positive as we now expect declining inflationary pressures and import controls to support growth.

We altered out 2015 election expectations from a run-off between Daniel Scioli and Mauricio Macri to a second round electoral victory for Daniel Scioli, the likely candidate from the ruling Frente para la Victoria.

The Argentina Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Argentina. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Argentina's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, BMI  Research.

Key Uses

* Forecast the pace and stability of Argentina's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise Argentina's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
* Evaluate external threats to doing business in Argentina, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Argentina Country Risk Report by BMI  Research includes four major sections: Economic Outlook

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Company: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Contact Name: Bill Thompson
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