Just Published: "Ghana Food & Drink Report Q4 2015"

We maintain our view that Ghana's real GDP growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, rising to 4.5% and 6.7% respectively, following a 4.3% expansion in 2014. However, this is a downward revision since our last quarterly update; we previously forecasted a much more robust recovery to the tune of 5.8% in 2015, and 8.0% in 2016. Although we still believe that the worst is past, in terms of the macroeconomic meltdown that the country underwent last year, significant challenges to growth remain. Real private consumption will rise by 3.0% in 2015, a relatively sedate pace as Ghanaian consumers remain under pressure.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/1055776_ghana_food_drink_report_q4.aspx?afid=301

Headline Industry Data

2015 per capita food consumption (local currency) = +11.4%; forecast compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2014 to 2019 = +12.9%.
2015 beer volume sales = +8.0%; forecast CAGR 2014 to 2019 = +10.0%.
2015 carbonated drinks volume sales = +9.3%; forecast CAGR 2014 to 2019 = +9.7%.

Key Industry Trends

2014/15 Cocoa Production Revised Lower : We have revised our 2014/15 Ghanaian cocoa production forecast to 820,000 tonnes, down from 850,000 tonnes. Since the start of the 2014/15 West African cocoa season, we have been below consensus regarding Ghanaian production, forecasting an 8% decline on the expectation of less favourable weather conditions for the region as whole and reduced input usage in Ghana especially. This underpinned our view that, once official forecasts were revised lower, the global cocoa market would return to deficit in 2014/15, ensuring prices would average higher year-on-year. This view is now playing out, as local forecasters are revising down estimates.

The Ghana Food & Drink Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Ghana Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Ghana.

Key Benefits

* Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Ghana to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Ghanaian food and drink market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in Ghana through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
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