Market Report, "United States Agribusiness Report Q4 2015", published

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Mon Oct 19 2015

Corn and soybean production season will decline year-on-year in the upcoming 2015/16, yet will still be among the largest crops in US agricultural history. Livestock will see some mild improvement in production growth in 2014/15, mainly owing to the poultry and pork sectors. The dairy sector is likely to see some improvement, but a record drought in California (the largest producing state) leads to strong downside production risks. Over the long term, the poultry sub-sector will remain the outperformer in the livestock complex and we see the strongest production growth potential for soybeans among the grains complex. We believe grains production will stagnate overall due to a lower planted area on the back of lower prices.

Key Trends

Beef production growth 2013/14 to 2018/19: 5.1% to 11.9mn tonnes. We have again revised our beef production forecasts lower due to herd rebuilding in 2013, which is likely to lead to fewer cows available for slaughter. The length of the cattle cycle means we expect production to stagnate until the end of our forecast period.
Poultry production growth to 2018/19: 13.6% to 22.9mn tonnes. The US is the world's second-largest poultry exporter, behind Brazil. As such, increased global demand for poultry, particularly from emerging markets, is likely to serve as a powerful production incentive.
Corn production growth to 2018/19: 4.0% to 368.0mn tonnes. Corn production growth will slow over the next five years as opportunities to increase yields (such as through the adoption of GM seeds) are waning.
Soybean production growth to 2018/19: 24.2% to 113.6mn tonnes. Soybean production growth will outpace that of corn over the medium term as farmers will switch from corn to soybean on a wider basis, as the production costs for the latter are generally cheaper.
2015 real GDP growth: 2.9% year-on-year (y-o-y), up from 2.4% in 2014.
2015 consumer price index: 1.1% y-o-y average, down from 1.6% in 2014.

Full Report Details at

The United States Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's United States Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

* Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
* Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.

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