Market Report, "Hong Kong Country Risk Report Q1 2016", published

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Sun Oct 25 2015

Despite a relatively strong H115, we have downgraded Hong Kong's real GDP growth forecasts for 2015 and 2016 to 2.5%. Dual headwinds emanating from the slowing Chinese economy and Hong Kong's overheated domestic property market will weigh heavily over the coming years, undermining potential for a more robust pick-up in economic activity.

We expect the ongoing run-up in Hong Kong residential property prices to fade heading in 2016, particularly as supply limitations subside and interest rates increase. While the eventual correction is likely to be moderate in nature, this will weigh on financial services and construction activity over the coming years.

Full Report Details at

Extremely large-scale pro-democracy protests, which began in September 2014 and were only wound up in December, failed to bring about any significant political compromise from either the Hong Kong or Chinese governments. The rejection by the pan-democrats of Beijing's blueprint for 2017's Chief Executive elections in June 2015 was another sign that the two sides remain very far apart, and we continue to believe that Beijing will progressively assert more domain over Hong Kong over the coming years.

Key Risk To Outlook

The main downside risk to the Hong Kong economy continues to stem from China. Hong Kong's economy is extremely interlinked with that of the mainland, particularly via trade flows and financial services. A further downturn in China's financial markets could therefore have considerable spill-over effects on Hong Kong, where financial services plays an outsized role in the economy. Meanwhile, an aggressive sell-off in the CNY could pressure the HKMA to re-peg the HKD.

The Hong Kong Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Hong Kong. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Hong Kong's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, BMI  Research.

Key Uses

* Forecast the pace and stability of Hong Kong's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise Hong Kong's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
* Evaluate external threats to doing business in Hong Kong, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Hong Kong Country Risk Report

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Contact Name: Bill Thompson
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