New Market Research Report: France Country Risk Report Q1 2016

We believe that French economic growth will lag the rest of the eurozone over the next two years as investment growth and external demand remain lacklustre, while meagre wage growth and high unemployment mean that household consumption - traditionally the key driver of the economy - will become less able to support growth.

We expect the fall in global oil prices and euro depreciation which occurred in H214 to bolster France's current account balance over the next two years. Euro depreciation will increase the competitiveness of exports to non-eurozone countries, as well as make France a cheaper holiday destination. Nevertheless, a weak euro and cheap oil will paper over the cracks of the structural decline in French competitiveness over the past decade .

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Although we are likely to see a gradual increase in positive rhetoric towards structural reforms, Hollande is unlikely to become an ambitious reformer of the French model. While we expect some reformers will take baby steps in the right direction, the ability of Hollande to implement sweeping reforms will be restrained by divisions within his own party and core support base.

We believe that France will continue to miss the European Commission's debt and deficit targets over the next two years and instead pursue fiscal consolidation at its own, decidedly slower, pace. Paris has now been granted three reprieves on its budget deficit. France was originally supposed to bring down its budget deficit to meet the Maastricht criteria of 3.0% of GDP by 2013, though this has now been extended to 2017. We think that this target will also be missed, and do not forecast a budget deficit of 3.0% of GDP until 2018

The France Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in France. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of France's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

* Forecast the pace and stability of France's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise France's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
* Evaluate external threats to doing business in France, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The France Country Risk Report

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