Market Report, "Pakistan Country Risk Report Q1 2016", published

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Tue Oct 27 2015

Manufacturing activity has picked up in recent months in spite of continued energy shortages, and expected progress in the energy sector should support further acceleration in manufacturing performance. The improved security situation in Karachi is also likely to provide a boost to economic activity in the county's largest city.

The latest interest rate cut by the SBP on September 12, which took the benchmark rate to 6.00% from 6.50%, is likely to trigger a rise in inflation towards the end of 2015, considering the backdrop of high money supply growth and the recent uptick in public sector credit. As such, we do not expect the SBP to reduce its benchmark interest rate any further from the current multi-year low.

The SBP's move to weaken the rupee by 2.0% on August 21 reflects growing real effective appreciatory pressure on the currency amid continued US dollar strength. While we do not expect to see a large devaluation in the currency, gradual weakness is likely as the central bank continued to build reserves and export weakness persists.

Full Report Details at

Pakistan's external accounts are being boosted by the drop in oil prices, but the underlying deterioration in the trade balance excluding oil suggests that the build-up in reserves is unsustainable. The lack of foreign direct investment is a worrying signal.

Efforts to increase revenue collection and improve the efficiency of government spending are bearing fruit in Pakistan, and a continued narrowing of the fiscal deficit is likely. A potential upgrade to Emerging Market status from index provider MSCI in 2016 could provide a major boost to the government's ongoing privatisation drive.

The Pakistan Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Pakistan. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Pakistan's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, BMI  Research.

Key Uses

* Forecast the pace and stability of Pakistan's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise Pakistan's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
* Evaluate external threats to doing business in Pakistan, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Pakistan Country Risk Report

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