New Transportation market report from Business Monitor International: "Lithuania Freight Transport Report 2016"
[ClickPress, Mon Nov 16 2015] The escalating trade war between Russia and the EU prompted us to revise down our forecast for growth in Lithuania for 2014. Growth will accelerate in 2015, as geopolitical tensions in the region disperse, trade restrictions get lifted, and overall external demand improves. However, with the situation in the region far from certain, Lithuania's freight industry may well bear the brunt of any further tensions should exports drop as a result.
Our expectation for a slowdown in Lithuanian economic growth appears to be materialising. The main factor behind this trend is softer external demand on the back of the Ukraine crisis (see 'Growth Outlook Sours' May 20 2014 ). However, escalating trade wars between Russia and the EU exacerbated the slowdown, prompting us to revise down our 2014 growth forecast - to 2.6% from 2.9% previously.
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According to the Bank of Lithuania, Russia's August trade restrictions on EU agricultural exports have impacted one fifth of Lithuanian exports to Russia (including re-exported goods to Russia), which amounts to 4.0% of total exports. The trade embargo has also impacted the transport industry, which relies heavily on revenues from the storage and transportation of Western goods destined for the Russian market.
The air freight sector in Lithuania is set to be the outperformer in 2015 with impressive year-on-year (y-o-y) growth of over 8% forecast, which is slightly down on 2014's estimate. Road and rail are both set to enjoy steady growth of 4.41% and 3.40% respectively.
Headline Industry Data
We expect air freight volumes to grow 8.20% y-o-y to 18,701 tonnes in 2015.
At the port of Klaipeda, we forecast growth in cargo volume of 4.04% to 37.31mn tonnes in 2015.
We expect rail freight volumes to grow by 3.40% to 50.40mn tonnes in 2015.
In 2015, we expect total road tonnage volume to increase by 4.41% to 58.22mn tonnes.
The Lithuania Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
BMI Research's Lithuania Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Lithuanian freight transport and logistics industry.
* Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Lithuania to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in the Lithuanian freight transport sector
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