Healthy growth is the order of the day across Chile's ports in 2015, with the Port of San Antonio set to be the outperformer in tonnage throughput growth (7.0% year-on-year growth) and the Port of Valparaiso poised to come in first place in terms of annual box throughput (8.0%). Growth is set to remain robust over our forecast period to 2019 and our forecasts are predicated on strong macroeconomic fundamentals, improving consumer confidence and the trade pact signed between Chile and various regional peers.
The Pacific Alliance, a trade pact signed between Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru three years ago, entered into force on July 20. The new trade bloc aims to establish a commercial integration area based on the free circulation of goods, services, capital and people. The trade agreement abolishes certain import tariffs, according to the Colombian trade ministry, and allows citizens of member countries to more easily qualify for work visas in partner nations, according to Colombia Reports.
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In H2 2015 and 2016, Chilean real GDP growth will significantly accelerate as investment activity and household consumption pick up. This follows a temporary slowdown of growth in H1 2015 after a spate of corruption allegations eroded both business and consumer confidence in Chile's historically stable political environment. Businesses in Chile will increase their inventories and investment in fixed capital projects after natural disasters shut down several copper mines. Moreover, tailwinds from low oil prices will boost household consumption. We forecast real GDP growth of 3.0% in 2015 and 3.7% in 2016, from a five-year low of 1.9% in 2014.
Headline Industry Data For 2015
The port of Valparaiso's tonnage throughput is forecast to grow by 6.5%.
The port of San Antonio's tonnage throughput is forecast to grow 7.0%.
Valparaiso's container throughput is forecast to grow by 8.0%.
San Antonio's container throughput is forecast to grow 7.0%.
The Chile Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and BMI Research's independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Chile.
BMI's Chile Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Chile.
Key Benefits
* Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Chile
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New Market Research Report: Chile Shipping Report Q1 2016
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Contact Name: Bill Thompson
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Contact Phone: 1-413-485-7001
Contact Name: Bill Thompson
Contact Email: press@fastmr.com
Contact Phone: 1-413-485-7001