New Report Available: Brazil Retail Report Q1 2016

A weakening labour market, elevated inflation and tightening credit conditions will to continue weigh on Brazilian retail sales over 2016, with the non-essentials segment suffering in particular. That said, the country remains the largest market in Latin America and we expect a more pronounced recovery in consumer sentiment from 2017 onwards.

Brazil's economy is poised to deteriorate even further in the coming months on the back of additional job losses and elevated inflation in 2016. Labour market rigidity ha d long p recluded rises in unemployment; even as the economy began to weaken in 2014, unemployment remained below 5.0%. Since then, we have seen a considerable deterioration, with unemployment rising to nearly 8.0% as of October 2015. Moreover, the public sector has yet to see the significant job losses endured by commodity producers, and therefore any fiscal austerity measures by the Brazilian government will likely lead to the government cutting its workforce. As such, we see scope for unemployment to head as high as 10.0% within the first half of 2016.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/1075241_brazil_retail_report_q1_2016.aspx?afid=301

Consumers in Brazil will face additional headwinds, underpinning our view that Brazil's recession will continue into 2016. Rising inflation and falling real incomes for private sector employees has led to large declines in retail sales. In addition, default rates among households are rising and attempts at deleveraging have been eroded by the large value of mortgages.

Poor debt dynamics are also a challenge for non-financial corporations. Both households and businesses have seen borrowing costs soar over the past few months . T here is room for further expansion, as well, by limiting credit availability over the coming months.

The Brazil Retail Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.

BMI's Brazil Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.

Key Benefits

* Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Brazil to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Brazilian retail market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in Brazil through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

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