Market Report, "Australia Freight Transport Report Q1 2016", published

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Thu Dec 10 2015

Over the course of 2016 we expect to see road freight once more outperform the other two modes in Australia with the former coming in at 3.10% y-o-y growth, and rail freight and air freight are forecast to grow by 2.77% and 0.70% respectively. The slight y-o-y gains across all of the modes compared to 2015 are in line with our view that the overall trade picture is set to improve over the next 12 months with real trade growth pencilled in to increase by 3.00% in 2016. Through to the end of our forecast period in 2019, we expect growth to be steady, if uninspiring. We expect the Australian dollar to continue to face fundamental downside pressure, and this will allow the decline in imports needed to improve the country's external indebtedness over the coming years.

Full Report Details at

The Australian economy continued to slow in Q1 2015, and we maintain our 2015 real GDP growth estimate of 2.3% (versus 2.7% in 2014). The country's worsening terms of trade and unwinding investment boom continue to act as major headwinds to growth going into 2016, thus tempering the rate of growth of the freight modes in Australia over the short term. That said, the lack of an explicit easing bias by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and potential risks to the property market caused by low interest rates suggest to us that further cuts by the central bank are unlikely, and we expect the RBA to keep its cash rate steady at 2.00% over the course of 2015 and 2016.

Meanwhile, the ongoing terms of trade shock that Australia is facing is rendering the rebalancing of trade in volume terms ineffective in monetary terms. While shipments for the country's largest exports, iron ore and coal, are at new all-time highs in volume terms, revenues are stagnating, and this is unlikely to be offset by a boost in LNG export earnings over the coming years.

The Australia Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Australia Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Australian freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

* Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Australia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in the Australian freight transport sector

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