Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "United States Freight Transport Report Q1 2016", is now available at Fast Market Research
[ClickPress, Wed Jan 20 2016] The US freight sector will enjoy healthy growth across all freight modes in the coming years given the positive turn in economic activity and the additional benefit of lower fuel prices due to the global oil price rout. We expect road freight will be the key outperformer in both the short term and medium term given our expectation for robust increases in the consumer sector.
The US economy will continue to strengthen in 2016, with real GDP set to increase from 2.5% in 2015 to 2.6% this year. This growth will be driven by a pick-up in private consumption as labour conditions and consumer confidence improve. Lower oil prices will also help to free up income otherwise spent on fuel. We expect these factors will continue to underpin growth and demand for freight services in the medium term, while lower oil prices will also boost companies' bottom line. We forecast economic growth to average 2.5% annually between 2016 and 2020.
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In terms of trade, demand for imported consumer goods will keep imports elevated in the coming years and keep freight volumes on a positive growth trajectory. Real import growth will increase by an annual average of 4.3% between 2016 and 2020, just below our expectation for export growth of 4.7% each year. In the shorter term, the steep decline in the price of oil will weigh on US crude producers' margins, and reduce the pace of domestic energy production expansion over the next several quarters, requiring greater volumes of fuel imports than would have otherwise been the case.
Road freight will continue to be the dominant freight mode in the US in terms of volumes carried over our medium-term forecast period, benefitting from increased consumer demand for imported goods, an uptick in online retail deliveries across the country and continued demand for grain road freight over short distances. Over the medium term we project the volumes of freight carried by road to expand by an annual average of 6.3%.
The United States Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
BMI Research's United States Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the American freight transport and logistics industry.
* Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on United States to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
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