Brazil Agribusiness Report Q1 2016 - New Report Available

We believe that grains production growth over the next five years will slow relative to the preceding five. In particular, corn production will lose acreage to soybean and see negative growth in 2015/16. Soybean production will outpace that of corn, as lower production costs for soybean relative to corn will make the commodity more attractive to grow. However, we see limited growth out to 2018/19 given the scarcity of area available for expansion as well as high import costs for fertilisers. We also see strong growth in the livestock and dairy sectors, as these will continue to benefit from Russia's ban on imports of US products, which has been extended to August 2016. We hold a more positive view on the sugar industry now than we have held in the past, due to reforms in the ethanol sector and the significant depreciation in the real over the past several months. Real weakness will be a net positive for the country's agricultural sector.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/1112349_brazil_agribusiness_report_q1.aspx?afid=301

Key Forecasts

Soybean production growth 2014/15 to 2018/19: 1.6% to 96.0mn tonnes. We see limited growth out to 2018/19 given the scarcity of area available for expansion, as well as high import costs for fertilisers.
Poultry consumption growth to 2019: 15.0% to 10.7mn tonnes. A growing middle class and the general preference for poultry over all other meat groups because of its health properties and lower prices will encourage demand growth.
Beef production growth to 2018/19: 9.8% to 10.4mn tonnes. Reduced cattle availability will weigh on beef production until 2016/17, as increasing cattle supply will take time (a period of 30 months is required from birth to slaughter).
Milk production growth to 2018/19: 20.7% to 41.3mn tonnes. Efficiency gains in the sector and growing export opportunities will boost output.
2016 real GDP growth: -3.4% (down from -3.1% in 2015).

The Brazil Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Brazil Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

* Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
* Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
* Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

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