Just Published: "Brazil Mining Report Q1 2016"

Brazil's mining industry will be supported by solid production growth in the country's iron ore sector over the next few years. Despite this, gold, nickel and tin production growth will slow due to continued price weakness.

Latest Developments & Structural Trends

Iron ore will be Brazil's mining industry's growth bright spot due to the sector's low production costs, and a strong output growth strategy from Brazilian mining giant Vale. We expect Brazil's share of global iron ore production to increase from 11.5% in 2016 to 13.6% in 2019, with the sector's output reaching 459mnt in 2020 from 359mnt in 2016.

While Brazil's iron ore production growth will not be significantly affected by the Samarco dam burst in November 2015, parent firms Vale and BHP Billiton will face significant fees of approximately USD5.2bn. Further, the deadly incident will motivate legislators to increase environmental regulation in the mining industry and heighten local opposition to the sector.

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Vale will remain focused on increasing low-cost production to maximize output, crowding out higher-cost junior miners in a weak price environment. For instance, Vale's cash costs fell to USD15.1/tonne in Q215 from USD23.2/tonne in Q115, well below our forecasted 2016 iron ore price of USD48.0/tonne. We forecast prices will average lower y-o-y in 2015 at USD48.0/tonne, compared to USD97/tonne in 2014. Beyond 2016, prices will experience nearly flat growth to 2019.

The Brazil Mining Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Brazil Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Brazil.

Key Benefits

* Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Brazil to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in Brazil's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Brazil.
* Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

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