2016 will be a good year for Italy's freight sector as the upswing in domestic consumption will stimulate road freight growth and as exports of cars and pharmaceuticals will show more dynamism than observed in recent years, which will feed through into growth of rail and air freight. Over the medium term, we expect growth in Italy's freight sector to slow down considerably as economic growth will be muted and exports will face strong competitiveness issues.
We have revised up (modestly) our forecasts for Italian real GDP growth in 2016 and 2017, to 1.2% and 1.0% respectively, from 1.1% and 0.9% as the recovery in domestic consumption will be strong. Over the medium term, however, we hold a bearish view with regards to the Italian economy, as the moderate recovery in domestic consumption will be insufficient to offset the weak performance of the external sector. Over our forecast period (2017-2019), we expect the economy to grow on average by relatively weak 0.8% measured in real terms.
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Both imports and exports will post relatively strong growth in 2016, as exports (in particular of manufactured goods and pharmaceuticals), will benefit from the economic upswing in Germany and other regional economies and as imports of consumption goods will grow on the back of improving domestic demand. This will lend some support to growth across all freight modes. Over the medium term, we expect trade growth to disappoint as Italy's exports will continue to face competitiveness issues, which cannot be fully resolved by the labour market reforms initiated in 2015.
The Italy Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
BMI Research's Italy Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Italian freight transport and logistics industry.
* Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Italy to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in the Italian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Italy.
* Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).
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