"EpiCast Report: Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension - Epidemiology Forecast to 2024" Published

Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension (PAH) is a rare and severe condition characterized by vascular proliferation and remodeling of the small pulmonary arteries. This results in progressively increasing pulmonary vascular resistance, leading to an increase in pulmonary arterial pressure. The disease typically results in right-sided heart failure and premature death. PAH can be idiopathic, heritable, or associated with different conditions such as connective tissue disease (CTD), congenital heart disease (CHD), human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, and exposure to toxins or drugs. PAH occurs twice as frequently in women as in men.

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GlobalData epidemiologists forecast an increase in the diagnosed incident cases of PAH in the 7MM, from 1,769 diagnosed incident cases in 2014 to 1,838 diagnosed incident cases in 2024, with an Annual Growth Rate (AGR) of 0.39% during the forecast period. In 2024, the US will have the highest number of diagnosed incident cases of PAH in the 7MM, with 677 diagnosed incident cases, whereas the UK will have the lowest number of diagnosed incident cases of PAH, with 74 diagnosed incident cases. Similarly, the diagnosed prevalent cases of PAH in the 7MM are expected to increase from 9,926 diagnosed prevalent cases in 2014 to 10,285 diagnosed prevalent cases in 2024, with an AGR of 0.36% during the forecast period. In 2024, the US will have the highest number of diagnosed prevalent cases of PAH in the 7MM, with 4,325 diagnosed prevalent cases, whereas the UK will have the lowest number of diagnosed prevalent cases of PAH, with 443 diagnosed prevalent cases.

GlobalData's epidemiological forecast for the diagnosed incident and the diagnosed prevalent cases of PAH in the 7MM is supported by age- and sex-specific data. The forecast methodology was kept consistent across the 7MM to allow for a meaningful comparison of the projected diagnosed incident cases and diagnosed prevalent cases of PAH across the markets. Additionally, GlobalData epidemiologists provided the diagnosed prevalent cases of PAH in each of the 7MM, segmented by the NYHA functional class I-IV, which is an important factor for predicting the prognosis, as well as the need for various clinical and treatment modalities specific to the functional classes, for PAH. GlobalData epidemiologists also provide an additional forecast for the diagnosed incident and diagnosed prevalent cases of PAH, adjusted for the underestimation of registry based forecast. These two different types of forecast strengthen the analysis, and present a comparative assessment of the extent of underestimation when using registry based data, which can be evaluated to provide better insights on the burden of the condition.

Report Scope

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