Argentina Retail Report Q1 2016 - New Report Available

The election of Marcelo Macri as the new president of Argentina will have a number of positive impacts for the country's economy. We anticipate a number of reforms to improve business environment and increase Argentina's appeal for foreign retailers. While the country's households will suffer from high inflation and weak income growth in the medium term, Argentina's retail sector will accelerate after 2019.

The Argentine economy has experienced significant turbulence over the past five years. Economic growth, which peaked at 9.5% in 2010, fell to 0.5% in 2014 and is expected to only achieve 0.7% in 2015. Consequently, the retail sector faces considerable challenges going forward owing to high inflation and a business environment that remains unwelcoming to foreign firms. Many are therefore awaiting positive changes following the election of Marcelo Macri, the country's new president following narrow victory in November. We currently forecast GDP to grow by 2.5% in 2016 and pick up steam later into the forecast period.

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The three main essentials sub-sectors comprise more than a half of the total household spending as we expect the trend to prevail in the medium term. Food & non-alcoholic drinks will expand mildly in its portion, mostly because slow income growth will force low-income households to withdraw some of their budgets from non-essentials spending. Meanwhile, both housing & utilities and transport sub-sectors will face declines in spending shares. The former is projected to shrink as a result of low credit availability as the banking system continues to suffer from poor public finances and uncertainty in the foreign exchange market. The latter, however, is bound to decline as a result of households seeking ways to cut car maintenance costs, which we expect to include both wider usage of public transportation and a shift to more fuel-efficient vehicles.

The Argentina Retail Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.

BMI's Argentina Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.

Key Benefits

* Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Argentina to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Argentinian retail market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in Argentina

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