Brazil Real Estate Report 2016: New research report available at Fast Market Research

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Tue Feb 16 2016

A redressing of the balance between supply and demand is characterising the real estate markets in Brazil in 2016, as large amounts of developments completed over the past years have resulted in over-supply. Therefore despite respectable demand, we do not see rental rates increasing over the coming year. We forecast transactional activity to pick up in 2017 , off the back of the Olympic Year , which should see the nation's profile raise in time for new economic reform policy to be implemented, making Brazil a more attractive place in which to both invest and operate from.

With the economy headed towards recession, Brazil's property markets are under considerable pressure. We expect a rebound in the economy and the real estate sector to take hold from 2017 onwards. When the recovery does come, we expect the retail sector to be one of the main beneficiary's, with the improvement in the economy, growth in tourism, rising incomes and a growing middle class population supporting the real estate sector in general and stimulating higher demand and rental growth for retail real estate in particular. Although current conditions are putting the property market under strain, some investors are finding this the ideal opportunity to acquire quality assets in the office and retail sectors at a discount and in anticipation of rental and capital growth in the long term.

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Brazil is in the midst of an economic policy shift. A new economic team will attempt to reverse the fiscal deterioration seen in the last few years and the central bank is more strongly committed to reining in inflation. That said, these shifts will be slow to translate into stronger real GDP growth given a number of domestic and external headwinds. We see little upside for Brazilian real GDP growth in the next few years. Significant headwinds to fixed investment and private consumption will see real GDP contract by over 2.0% in 2015 before contracting again in 2016.

The office market in Brazil is expected to see stable rents in most locations with demand filling previously completed projects rather than driving up price. We do expect that demand levels will not rise immediately, but rather in line with GDP growth and therefore over the course of 2016 we forecast little change in the sector in terms of demand from prospective tenants. 2017 is expected to be the year in which the most growth is perceived in the office real estate sub sector with rental rates rising as supply and demand balance out.

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