New Report Available: Italy Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q2 2016

Drugmaker revenue streams will continue to be constrained in Italy as companies will be forced to refund a significant portion of the regional public pharmaceutical overspend for 2015 and beyond. Italian regions will continue to struggle to maintain pharmaceutical expenditure below the 3.5% ceiling of the national healthcare budget. Although the government may implement measures to contain future pharmaceutical expenditure, it will be impossible to reverse the trend by the end of 2016.

Headline Expenditure Projections

Pharmaceuticals: EUR21.74bn (USD23.92bn) in 2015 to EUR21.50bn (USD23.01bn) in 2016; -1.1% in local currency terms and -3.8% in US dollar terms.

Healthcare: EUR141.14bn (USD155.26bn) in 2015 to EUR141.50bn (USD151.40bn) in 2016; +0.3% in local currency terms and -2.5% in US dollar terms.

Risk/Reward Index

In our Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk/Reward Index for Q216, Italy comes in 13th place out of the 15 markets surveyed in Western Europe, above Ireland and Portugal and below the Netherlands and Spain. Despite being a large market, Italy is characterised by low levels of annual growth, largely due to of widespread price cuts, resulting in the market scoring a below average rating of 63.4.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/1119025_italy_pharmaceuticals.aspx?afid=301

Latest Updates

More than 40% of Italians think healthcare in the country is worsening, a figure that increases to 60% in the country's south, according to a study released by Censis in December 2015.

Italy's doctors went on a strike on December 16 2015, despite the government amending its budget for 2016 to allow for the hiring of new health sector personnel to address the effects of EU rules on work hours.

In Q415, France-based AXA Investment Managers - Real Assets concluded the purchase of a portfolio of eight acute care hospital facilities in Northern Italy from private operator Policlinico Di Monza.

BMI Economic View

Italian real GDP growth will accelerate to 1.2% in 2016, from an estimated 0.8% in 2015, driven by stronger domestic demand. While exports will accelerate in line with improving demand from the eurozone and other developed state trading partners, net trade will subtract from growth and weak external competitiveness remains a key drag on the medium-term outlook.

BMI Political View

Public support for Prime Minister Matteo Renzi's government will receive a boost from pro-growth fiscal policy and rising employment levels, which will arrest the recent surge in support for anti-establishment parties. With the structural reform agenda broadly on track, new elections are likely to be called if Senate reform is completed in late 2016 or early 2017.

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