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[ClickPress, Wed Feb 17 2016] The combination of a poor consumer story and a downbeat outlook for local businesses informs BMI's negative view on the Ukrainian new vehicle sales market in 2016. We are targeting a 6 .2 % fall in sales across for the sector as a whole, with passenger cars set to outperform commercial vehicles.
As of end-November 2015, Ukraine had produced a total of 6,434 vehicles, according to figures from the Ukrainian Motor Vehicle Manufacturers Association (UkrAutoProm). This places the country on track to slightly exceed BMI's bearish forecast of 6,848 units for the full year, but fully underlines the bearish stance we take over the evolution of domestic auto production over the near term.
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We expect commercial vehicle (CV) manufacturers to be the least affected by the ongoing conflict in 2016 given the important role of heavy trucks in infrastructure redevelopment projects across the conflict-damaged regions of the country and the more numerous export opportunities for the heavy truck segment.
On the sales front, Ukraine had sold a total of 41,127 vehicles over 11M15, according to figures from UkrAutoProm.
This means that the country now looks highly likely to undershoot BMI's already bearish forecast of 54,590 units for the full year.
The country's downbeat economic outlook (we are targeting GDP growth of just 0.9% in 2016, after an expected 10.9% plunge in 2015) will significantly temper appetite for big-ticket purchases, such as new cars, over 2016 and beyond.
With the local operating environment likely to remain stymied over 2015 and 2016, and given recent cut in import duties, we believe a trend of growing import penetration will continue within the Ukrainian new vehicle sales market.
Japanese carmaker Toyota is the leading passenger car seller on the Ukrainian market, with its Corolla and RAV4 models particularly popular.
The Ukraine Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
BMI Research's Ukraine Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Ukraine.
* Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Ukraine to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Ukrainian automotives market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in the Ukrainian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Ukraine.
* Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
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