Report Published: "Poland Petrochemicals Report Q2 2016"

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Sun Feb 21 2016

Polish polymer output growth was in double figures in 2015 as the automotive industry rebounded and exports improved. There is plenty of capacity available for similar rates of growth over the near term, but with insufficient local hydrocarbon resources BMI doubts there is a basis for further capacity investment.

In 2015, ethylene production was up 15.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 545,000 tonnes, polyethylene output was up 11.5% to 376,000 tonnes, polypropylene increased 10.5% to 245,000 tonnes and polyvinyl chloride rose 16.7% to 321,000 tonnes. However, there is plenty of room for growth even within current capacities. In 2015, Poland had olefins of 760,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) of ethylene, 475,000tpa propylene and 60,000tpa butadiene. Polymer capacities include 320,000tpa high-density polyethylene, 170,000tpa low density polyethylene, 400,000tpa polypropylene, 550,000tpa polyvinyl chloride, 90,000tpa polystyrene and 120,000tpa polyethylene terephthalate. In the fertiliser segment, it had capacities of 1.4mn tpa in both ammonia and urea.

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The Polish petrochemicals industry continues to draw investment and is planning for expansion. The focus will be the plans of Polish refiners Grupa Lotos and Grupa Azoty, which are considering building a 1mn tpa petrochemicals complex in Gdansk. The complex will either be centred on an ethylene cracker or an aromatics extraction plant and would be the biggest petrochemicals investment in Poland for many years. However, it is unlikely that the complex will come onstream over the forecast period and much will depend on the direction of feedstock costs. Until there is firm confirmation of the plans, BMI will exclude this project from the forecasts.

Polish petrochemicals producer PKN Orlen's annual sales at targeted at 900,000 tonnes in 2017, while sales volumes from the company's new purified terephthalic acid plant should reach 600,000 tonnes in 2017. Olefins production volumes should rise 7% in the coming five-year period compared with the previous one. Orlen is also investing in upstream shale gas exploration in Poland as well as making acquisitions abroad.

Poland's Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index (RRI) fell slightly this quarter by 0.1 point to 59.2 points as a result of a modest decline in its country risk score. However, the country remains in a strong position regionally, pulling it further ahead of Hungary and remaining the leader of the Central and Eastern Europe states.

The Poland Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

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