Report Published: "Australia Insurance Report Q2 2016"

As of early 2016, the general trends for Australia's insurance sector are positive. Thanks mainly to net immigration, the population is growing. This will contribute to continued growth in overall economic activity through the forecast period, even if the pace of expansion is slower than in recent years. The life segment should benefit from the further development of superannuation funds, from innovation by life insurers, and from increased demand for annuities and other retirement income solutions. The non-life segment should benefit from volume growth - although players in many sub-sectors will continue to face downwards pressure on prices. The main exception to this is the health insurance sub-sector, where insurers will benefit from rising volumes and, thanks to inflation in healthcare costs, rates.

Key Updates And Forecasts

The growth of the non-life segment continues to be underpinned by the expansion of private health insurance. Demand for health insurance is being boosted by tax incentives, the growth of the population and the ageing of the population. We have broadly maintained our forecasts from last quarter.

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For now we are maintaining our view that life premiums will rise by around 2% annually through the forecast period. However, the latest data published (in relation to the year to September 2015) by regulator APRA indicate that the risks to our forecasts are to the upside. We believe that premiums have been boosted in the recent past because of the attractiveness of life insurers' offerings relative to other investment opportunities. The local stock market has been volatile. Cash rates are low. Investment real estate is, or is perceived to be, expensive by many yardsticks.

We have increased our forecasts for motor vehicle insurance in order to recognise innovation by the insurers in terms of product design and/or distribution. We note, though, that pressure on prices in the motor vehicle insurance sub-sector remains in a downwards direction: this is true of most of the non-life segment outside health insurance.

The Australia Insurance Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the insurance sector. It examines industry developments, key growth drivers and risk management projections, including the macroeconomic situation, government policy, regulatory environment and the level of development and potential for growth, broken down by line. Leading insurers are profiled, covering premiums, products and services and competitive positioning.

BMI's Australia Insurance Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Australian insurance industry.

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