Just Published: "Angola Oil & Gas Report Q2 2016"

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Thu Feb 25 2016

Angola's oil production is forecast to remain strong and unaffected by low oil prices, with output rising up until 2018. Post-2018 oil production will fall off due to a steep decline in rates on mature fields and no new projects forecast to counteract the declines. However, with plenty of pre-FID projects in the pipeline and a strong oil major presence, oil production risks lie to the upside. Gas production will remain limited throughout our forecast with weak domestic demand , but will benefit from the ALNG coming back online after two years of closure. The downstream outlook is bleak, with the two planned refineries looking increasingly unlikely to materialise in the next 10 years.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/1119097_angola_oil_gas_report_q2_2016.aspx?afid=301

Latest Updates And Key Trends

Angola will see continued exploration of its prospective offshore waters. However, we expect a slowdown in high-cost, high-risk ultra-deepwater and pre-salt drilling as companies look to rein in capital expenditure and exercise tighter fiscal discipline.

Oil production updates are mixed for Angola. On the plus side, Eni started production from the Mpungi field in the West Hub Development Project, with overall output ramping up to 100,000 b/d in Q116. However, on the downside, Cobalt has sold its stakes in offshore blocks 20 & 21, removing some upside risk to our production forecast as block 21 contained Cobalts 100,000 b/d pre-FID Cameia project.

Angola's planned expansion of its domestic refining capacity will struggle against high project costs, limited domestic consumption and a lack of export markets. Despite initial construction works reported to have started, we argue there remains an increasing probability of cancellation or delay to the Soyo and Lobito refineries.

Chevron has announced that the Angolan LNG export project has started recommissioning.

Gas production levels will remain low, and heavily linked to LNG exports. Looseness in the global LNG market and a lack of long-term sales agreements will depress demand for Angolan LNG, constraining both production and export levels across our 10-year forecast period.

Export revenues will come under pressure in the coming years, due to the sharp and sustained drop in oil prices, under-utilisation of the LNG export terminal and the decline in oil-linked LNG prices.

The Angola Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Angola including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

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