Report Published: "Germany Infrastructure Report Q2 2016"

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Thu Feb 25 2016

A resurgent German economy presents upside risk to our construction industry forecasts over 2016, although we note a lack of investment from the government and corporat ion s means growth will trend lower over our 10-year forecast period. The residential sector, rail infrastructure and renewables projects remain the market's bright spots.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

Despite a slowdown in 2015, we forecast Germany's construction sector to register healthy real growth rates of 1.8% in 2016. However, our longer-term outlook remains relatively subdued, with the industry's annual growth rates averaging 1.3% between 2017-2025.

Germany's net transport infrastructure industry's value recorded 3.4% y-o-y expansion in real terms in 2015. On account of limited investment, we expect industry growth to decelerate gradually across our forecast period to 2025, averaging 1.4% expansion per annum. We maintain our view that the railways sector will remain the fastest growing segment throughout our forecast period, expanding by an annual average of 1.5% over the coming decade.

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Germany's residential and non-residential construction industry value registered real growth of 5.8% (y-o-y) in 2015. While we forecast slower expansion in future, we maintain our positive outlook for the sector, especially in the short term. An upside risk to the residential sector forecast comes from the influx of asylum seekers in Germany.

Risk/Reward Index

Germany's overall Infrastructure RRI score increased from 71.7 in Q116 to 73.0 in Q216. The improvement came from the higher score in the 'Government Spending, % of GDP' metric thus strengthening the Industry Rewards section and lifting Germany to 3rd position out of 17 markets assessed in the competitive North America/Western Europe region.

Industry Rewards are low by global standards, with Germany scoring 62.5 out of 100. Despite being a large market, tepid growth limits the market's attractiveness.

Germany is one of the highest scoring markets globally for the Industry Risks. Germany's infrastructure industry boast a number of well established companies operating in Germany and abroad, while its public procurement and tendering procedures are highly efficient and transparent.

The Germany Infrastructure Report features BMI Research's market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.

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