New Market Report: Morocco Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Tue Mar 01 2016


With the exception of the corn sub-sector, all areas of Morocco's agriculture sector are set to enjoy solid growth through to the end of our forecast period. Our optimism is bolstered by the government-initiated Green Morocco Plan, which is likely to see increased investment in an effort to reduce the industry's weather-related production risks out to 2020. We believe that the twin strategies of producing high-yield and market-related agriculture, as well as improving the existing water conservation programme, will yield good results in the medium-to-long term.

Key BMI Forecasts

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/1123464_morocco_agribusiness_report.aspx?afid=301

Wheat , average yearly production growth 2015/16 to 2019/20: 10.5% , reaching 7.4mn tonnes by 2019/ 20. Production will be volatile throughout the forecast period as it will decline substantially in 2016/17 following a bumper crop in 2015/16. Out to 2019/20, continued investment and support by the government will keep output growth steady.

2016 real GDP growth: 2.0% (down from an estimated 4.4% in 2015).

Latest Updates & Structural Trends

Being largely rain-fed, cereal production in Morocco is highly variable. Wheat production will be volatile throughout the forecast period, but continued investment and support by the government will keep output growth steady. Wheat consumption growth remains steady and reflects government efforts to regulate supply through the use of subsidies and stocks.

Poultry production will decline sizeably in 2015/16 due to a disease outbreak, while beef production will be constrained by the lack of feed products. Out to 2019/20, both meats should recover on the back of a solid domestic market. Meanwhile, meat consumption is expected to remain strong over the forecast period, in line with positive economic growth.

Moroccan dairy consumption will outpace production over the next five years as growing incomes stimulate demand for processed dairy products such as cheese and butter. This consumption outperformance will lead to a shrinking milk surplus as output growth will be constrained by the need to improve milk quality and yields, as well as limited growth in revenue for dairy farmers.

Sugar production in Morocco is highly volatile, as the industry remains vulnerable to weather events. Production has been unable to reach the record levels recorded in the mid-2000s (550,000 tonnes in 2004/05). After several years of further volatility in Moroccan sugar output, public and private support, as well as increasing use of certified seeds for both sugar beet and sugar cane cultivation, will provide solid foundations for sustained growth to 2020.

The Morocco Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

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