New market study, "Thailand Agribusiness Report Q2 2016", has been published

Thailand will maintain its status as a key Asian agricultural provider in the coming years, as the sector boasts strong export opportunities and government support as well as an efficient food producing industry. The sugar and livestock sectors hold promising growth stories. However, the government's interference in the market, especially in the rice sector, will hinder the competitive ness of Thai production compared to its Asian rivals. Rice production will face downward pressure as the government incentivises farmers to switch away from rice towards other crops, mainly sugarcane, in a bid to curb oversupply of rice. That said, Thailand will likely regain its status as the world's largest rice exporter as the government seeks to clear out its rice stockpile by 2016.

Key Forecasts

Sugar production growth to 2019/20: 12.8% to 12.2mn tonnes. Production will be supported by the government's goal to incentivise rice farmers to switch to the cultivation of other crops, mainly sugarcane. Sugar output will also be driven mainly by strong sugarcane yield improvements, improved sugar recovery from cane and strong export opportunities.
Corn consumption growth to 2020: 24.7% to 6.3mn tonnes. Sugar output will be driven mainly by the new government incentives, strong sugar cane yield improvements and improved sugar recovery from cane and strong export opportunities.
Poultry production growth to 2019/20: 30.2% to 2.1mn tonnes. The government is now aiming at reducing the country's rice oversupply by incentivizing farmers to turn to alternative crops. This will limit plantings growth in the coming years.
2016 BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD42.1bn (growth to average 4.1% annually between 2015 and 2019).
Real GDP growth in 2016: 3.3% chg y-o-y (up from 3.2% expected in 2015, forecast to average 3.7% annually between 2016 and 2020).
Consumer price index in 2016: 1.5% average (up from -0.7% expected in 2015; forecast to average 2.3% between 2016 and 2020).
Central Bank Policy Rate in 2016: 1.50% eop (up from 1.25% expected in 2015; forecast to average 1.50% between 2016 and 2020).

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/1123487_thailand_agribusiness_report.aspx?afid=301

Key Developments

Thailand suffered from a drought in 2015, which will hamper the country's ongoing 2015/16 agricultural production. The drought started in Q215 and intensified in Q315, before the weather returned to normal in Q415 and in January 2016. Below-average rainfall, coupled with high temperatures during the rainy season, undermined plantings and development of the main rice crop, as well as of the corn and sugarcane crops.

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