We expect Kazakhstan's insurance market to continue developing at a fast pace through the next few years, despite a series of economic headwinds including falling oil prices and a depreciating national currency. The rapid growth of the market owes much to its under-development, having been restrained by a lack of private enterprise during the Soviet era. The life insurance premiums in particular are set to see rapid expansion, growing by around 20% a year on average in local currency terms. Personal non-life lines will also benefit from steady growth in income levels and the expansion of the country's middle-class demographic. Growing demand for insurance will pave the way for new entrants into the market from overseas who will be able to take advantage of a lack of competition and the absence of multinational operators at present.
Key Updates And Forecasts
January 2016 saw Kazakhstan's deposit insurance fund raise the interest rate on local currency deposits from 10% to 14% following further depreciation of the tenge during the first few weeks of the year. Its recent devaluation has sparked concerns that investors may be unwilling to make deposits based in local currency.
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We have revised our medium-term forecasts for life insurance growth downwards slightly since last quarter, in reflection of downside risks linked to falling oil prices and short-term pressures on economic growth. Nevertheless, we expect premiums to grow by a rapid 22.2% a year on average in local currency terms through to 2020, when they will reach KZT229bn.
Growth in the non-life sector will be more modest, at 9.3% y-o-y over 2016-2020, reaching KZT350.7bn at the end of the forecast period.
Currency market movements should see premiums contract in USD terms in 2016 as the tenge fell to a record low against the dollar in January 2016. Life premiums should fall by 5.3% this year, while non-life premiums should contract by 25.1%.
The Kazakhstan Insurance Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the insurance sector. It examines industry developments, key growth drivers and risk management projections, including the macroeconomic situation, government policy, regulatory environment and the level of development and potential for growth, broken down by line. Leading insurers are profiled, covering premiums, products and services and competitive positioning.
BMI's Kazakhstan Insurance Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Kazakhstani insurance industry.
Benchmark BMI's independent insurance industry forecasts for Kazakhstan to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in Kazakhstan's insurance market.
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"Kazakhstan Insurance Report Q2 2016" Published
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