New Energy market report from Business Monitor International: "Indonesia Power Report Q2 2016"

[ClickPress, Thu Mar 31 2016] We forecast robust and sustained growth in Indonesia's power sector. Demand on the national power network is growing rapidly - a result of both economic and population growth. The government is under significant pressure to ensure that supply catches up to demand, and further to create a surplus for energy exports. Pressure is also growing to develop greater renewable energy capacity , particularly following the effects of the pollution under the Sout heast Asian haze crisis in late- 2015. The investment environment continues to improve and we are seeing a growing number of power plant projects entering the pipeline, primarily focused on coal-fired power but with a significant number of hydropower and geothermal projects planned or underway. We do note, however, that despite ambitious plans, many projects have been subject to delays and while we expect generation and capacity to grow throughout the forecast period, we do not expect current government targets to be achievable.

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Some progress is being made in the governments 35,000MW programme. State-owned utility Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) announced it expects to complete a 100MW gas-fired power plant in the country's province of Gorontalo in February 2016, the first to be commissioned under the expansion programme.

Geothermal is another substantial growth area. In December 2015 the government launched the tender processes for development contracts of three geothermal power plants in Way Ratai, Lampung; Marana in Central Sulawesi; and Gunung Talang- Bukit Kili, West Sumatra. Exploration is expected to take around five years. The projects, worth a total of around USD380mn, are expected to start electricity generation in 2022.

On December 8 2015, President Joko Widodo launched the first of the five new floating power stations commissioned to address the country's growing demand for electricity. Widodo stated that the other four vessels will be delivered over the next six months. The vessels will primarily serve eastern Indonesia, including the islands of Sulawesi, Halmaherah, Maluku and Papua.

The broad range of projects under development support our forecasts for average annual growth in generation of 6.72% between 2016 and 2025, with total generation growing from 239.9TWh in 2016 to 432.8TWh in 2025. While the frequency of project delays presents a downside risks to forecasts, the gathering volume of investment also presents a potential upside risks to our current forecasts.

The Indonesia Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

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