Market Report, "Romania Country Risk Report Q2 2016", published

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Thu Mar 31 2016

Romania will be an economic growth outperformer in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in 2016, and the second fastest growing EU economy (behind Ireland).

Growth will mainly driven by household spending, which stands to benefit from public sector wage increases, successive VAT cuts, and improving labour market conditions.

Romania's deflationary trend is supply-side in nature, and we expect the central bank to begin hiking rates in late 2016 or early 2017.

Romania's current account and trade deficits will widen, mainly due to robust domestic demand and imports.

Romania's anticorruption push will dent trust in politicians in 2016, but will be net positive for the country's longer-term macroeconomic and political development.

Full Report Details at

Major Forecast Changes:

While Romania is now one of few EU members still stuck in deflation, we have revised our forecasts for the policy rate to be increased to 2.00% by-end 2016, from a previous 1.75% forecast.

Key Risks :

While we expect the current technocratic government to survive until the next election which will be held in late 2016, we cannot rule out some form of government collapse. This would lead to a short-term uptick in political risk, and could potentially dent overseas investment.

Assess your risk exposure in Romania with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Romania with confidence.

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