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[ClickPress, Fri Apr 29 2016] Progress on peace negotiations has been slow and major barriers remain to formation of the Libyan unity government. We expect the government to take office in 2016, returning a significant tranche of shut-in production. However, the security environment will remain fragile , while chronic underinvestment, substantial damage to infrastructure and a lack of maintenance works will all drag on the recovery. The downstream sector also faces major headwinds, due to the ageing and poorly utilised infrastructure, recurrent feedstock constraints and a severe lack of investment.
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Piecemeal progress in the UN-brokered peace talks towards a Libyan unity government poses upside risk to our bearish oil and gas outlook. However, a polarised political scene and the deep fragmentation of the conflict will see insecurity remain an enduring feature of the country's operating environment over the coming years.
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Exploration will remain heavily curtailed across much of our forecast period due to continued instability and unattractive fiscal and licensing terms.
Ongoing instability in Libya affected production throughout 2015, and we expect this dynamic to continue into 2016. We forecast an 8.1% y-o-y decline in crude and condensates output, averaging 387,000b/d.
Gas output has been somewhat less affected than crude and we estimate that in 2016 gas production will remain broadly stagnant, at 12.3bcm.
Refineries will operate below capacity, due to both interruptions in the oil supply and the targeting of oil and gas infrastructure by opponents to the central governments.
The risks to our view lie largely to the upside and an improvement in Libya's political situation and resultant gains in operational stability could support a more consistent recovery in production and exports. However, this is not our core view at present.
The Libya Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Libya including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Libya Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Libyan oil and gas industry.
Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Libya to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Libyan oil and gas market.
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