United States Country Risk Report Q3 2016: New research report available at Fast Market Research

The US economy is set to grow at a rate below its historical trend in 2016, as a strengthening labour market, which will support private consumption, is offset by export and manufacturing headwinds . We forecast real GDP growth of 2. 2 % i n 201 6 , compared to 2. 4 % in 201 5 .

The fiscal deficit will widen beginning in 2016, as Congress relaxes spending constraints put in place since 2011, rising interest rates increase debt servicing costs and mandatory spending obligations keep upward pressure on expenditures.

The US current account deficit will deteriorate marginally as a percentage of GDP , as lower fuel costs cause the country's import bill to shrink but global headwinds and a strong dollar weigh on exports .

The US benchmark federal fund interest rate will remain w ill rise only modestly in coming quarters, and will not reach its terminal level until 2018 . High-frequency economic data in the US have been mixed over recent months, while downsides risks to global growth remain significant .

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Major Forecast Revisions

We have revised our long-term fiscal and government debt projections, and we now expect the US fiscal gap to steadily widen over the next ten years, averaging 3.9% of GDP from 2016 to 2025. By the end of that period, we expect government debt to rise to 79.9% of GDP from 74.3 in 2016.

Key Risks

Political Gridlock Intensifies: Although we believe that there remain deep ideological divisions between the White House and the Republican-led Congress, we believe that there is sufficient common ground for significant legislation to pass. If the political climate turns more hostile than we anticipate, these gains may not come to fruition.

Assess your risk exposure in United States with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in United States with confidence.

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