New Market Research Report: Bangladesh Agribusiness Report Q3 2016

We hold a cautious outlook towards the Bangladesh agriculture sector over the short term . The limited amount of arable land available for acreage expansion , as well as poor safety standards , will constrain growth over our forecast period. S tructural problems still plague the industry , in particular the logistical challenges of food transportation within the country . Over the long term, we believe there is much more room for growth and improvement in sub-sectors such as grains and livestoc k. That said, as the agricultural sector in Bangladesh employs close to 70% of the working population but contributes only 20% of the country's GDP, there is an obvious need for improvement in efficiency of operations. GM food policy is also an interesting area to look at , as Bangladesh is undoubtedly one of the most open countries to GM food cultivation in Asia .

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Key Forecasts

Wheat production growth to 2019/20: 1.37mn tonnes. The main driver behind this growth will be an improvement in yields. Wheat cultivation remains a preferred option for non-irrigated land given the low requirement for input use (fertiliser, insecticides and labour).
Sugar production growth to 2019/20: 146,000 tonnes. Production will fail to return to the levels reached in the early 2000s. With farmers increasingly planting more profitable cash crops, such as cotton, we do not foresee sugar production to pick up significantly any time soon.
Poultry production growth to 2019/20: 244,000 tonnes. Better economic conditions and higher disposable incomes will help to drive demand for meat. Better disease control is also expected to support the recovery of the sector.
2016 real GDP growth: 6.5%, same level as in 2015. Predicted to average 6.6% y-o-y between 2016 and 2020.
2016 consumer price inflation: 6.2% y-o-y average, down from 6.4% y-o-y in 2015. Predicted to average 6.2% from 2016 to 2020.
BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD19.0bn in 2016 (up 6.6% y-o-y from USD17.8bn in 2015; forecast to grow annually by 5.9% on average from 2016 to 2020).

Latest Updates & Structural Trends

Rice production growth will slow down in the coming years due to competition from wheat and land scarcity constraining acreage expansion. Consumption will grow at a solid rate following population growth, while imports will increase as the country's rice deficit grows to 2020.

Despite solid growth in production, Bangladesh will not be self-sufficient in wheat by 2020. Therefore, the country will be increasingly reliant on imports to supply increasing demand driven by population growth. Regarding corn, Bangladesh will continue to record solid output growth as domestic deficits driven by demand from the poultry sector will sustain corn production incentives.

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