Report Published: "South Africa Agribusiness Report Q3 2016"

We continue to hold a mixed outlook for the South African agricultural market as a whole. Both corn and wheat will be hit by severe drought and the effects of El Ni n o , but we do expect grains to rebound over the course of our forecast period . Furthermore, livestock production and sugar consumption will both embark on a positive trajectory. Over the medium term, a weak rand , weather volatility and falling farm incomes will exert downward pressures on the market. However, economic growth , increasing demand and a higher population with mo re discretionary spending power will be boosts for growth.

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Key Forecasts

Corn production will take another year of heavy losses in 2015/16 due to severe drought, declining by an additional 38.8% y-o-y to reach 6.5mn tonnes.
Sugar production will decline by 20.2% to reach 1.75mn tonnes in 2015/16, as El Nino and severe regional weather droughts hit output.
Poultry production will reach 1.3mn tonnes in 2015/16, representing a y-o-y increase of 1.2%.
Pork production will rise by 2.1% in 2015/16 to reach 245,000 tonnes, while consumption will see a rise to 306,000 tonnes.

Industry Outlook

The continuing effects of the drought on the South African agricultural sector are wreaking havoc on farmers and the farming infrastructure of the country. Corn, sugar and wheat yields are all expected to take severe hits. Corn will suffer the most, with o dropping by an additional 38.8% this year after taking a hit of over 28% in the previous year. Sugar declines will also be severe of over 20% this year after declining by over 10% in the previous year. The local wheat crop will also suffer two consecutive years of declines. We anticipate that the severity of the droughts and impact of the El Nino year will be lessened in the subsequent years, providing the grains and sugar industry a return to growth.

The South Africa Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's South Africa Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits
Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

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