New Market Report: Namibia Country Risk Report Q3 2016

Namibia's economy will face dual headwinds of low global demand and prices for its key commodities exports. This will have knock on implications for investment in the mining sector. We forecast a minimal uptick in growth from 3.9% in 2015 to 4.1% in 2016 and again to 4.4% in 2017.

The landslide victory for president-elect Hage Geingob and the ruling SWAPO in Namibia's general elections on November 28 2014 augurs for broad political stability and a pro-business economic agenda. The result means that SWAPO will expand on its two thirds majority in the national assembly. Hopes for a shift towards a more inclusive electoral landscape continue to prove elusive.

Namibia's fiscal position will remain in the red until FY2020/21 owing to lower demand for the countries commodities - the mining sector accounts for around 60% of export value - which will slash tax income. We see little scope for a near-term pull back in spending given the government's medium term inclusive growth plans and therefore forecast a deeper fiscal deficit in FY2016/17 of 6.2% from a deficit of 4.9% in FY2015/16.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/1170467_namibia_country_risk_report.aspx?afid=301

Major Forecast Changes:

We have revised down our real GDP growth forecast for 2015 and 2016, from 5.3% in 2015 and 5.5% in 2016 to 3.9% and 4.1% in 2015 and 2016 respectively.

Key Risks:

Namibia's small, open economy is highly exposed to events on the world stage. While we have incorporated the ongoing global malaise into our economic forecasts, if the situation abroad deteriorates (or conversely, improves) more than we anticipate, it would affect Namibia's overall growth.

Much of the economy remains closely tied to agriculture, and weather poses substantial risks, as illustrated by the ongoing drought which has threatened yields and food security. Changing weather conditions will affect growth, inflation and trade.

Namibia's statistics has been subject to multiple revisions and this weighs on overall data for the country.

The Namibia Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in The Namibia and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..

An influential new analysis of The Namibia's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses
Forecast the pace and stability of The Namibia's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.

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